2024 Grouse Season Forecast: Insights from the Pair Counts

If it is very hard to accurately forecast what grouse prospects are going to be like in July, it is impossible in April! However, we have now got our spring grouse pair counts in and we thought that it would be worthwhile updating you as to what these are showing.

As always, these are incredibly varied.  I say “as always” because although you usually see considerable variation across the country i.e. from the Peak District up to the Highlands, within each particular area there is usually some reasonable consistency. Most moors which are close by tend to have similar ups and downs, as might be expected. However, this does not seem to be the case this year, with massive variation even between moors quite close together.

The Prospects for Grouse Moors in England

Starting at the southern end of the moorland community, we think that the Peak District is looking “consistent”.  Nothing very exciting here because there were not a lot of grouse in the Peak District last year and you need a good previous season (even after the shootable surplus has been taken) to provide a high number of pairs for the following spring.  While there are a reasonable number of pairs on most moors for there to be some shooting there this coming season, we doubt that many will be flying. 

In the North Yorkshire moors, there has definitely been an improvement, which is looking good.  Across the other side of the country, the Trough of Bowland and West Yorkshire are definitely up on last year, but in the main Pennine chain there is a great deal of variation.  Where there were a good number of grouse last year, there seems to have been a significant number of overwinter deaths, some caused by predation, but there have also been a lot of deaths caused by natural causes. This has resulted in fewer pairs than expected being counted on many moors, given what stock was left at the end of the last shooting season.

The Prospects for Grouse Moors in Scotland

Going into Scotland, we have had some very good counts on one moor in southern Scotland and some remarkably low worm counts on another moor. This has definitely bucked the trend as the latter moor had a lovely lot of grouse last season, so we expected a much higher worm burden. Further north into Perthshire, Inverness-shire and Morayshire, the picture gets more varied and overall less optimistic.  We have got drives on highland moors with significantly improved counts over what they have been over the last two or three years, but on drives very close by, the counts have not been special at all.  On one large Morayshire moor, which we hoped was going to show a really nice upturn, we are down on last year's counts and that seems to be fairly representative of the area.

At this stage, our conclusion is that from the pair counts, the 2024/2025 season is unlikely to be a big one on many moors.  However, we should see a nice shootable surplus on quite a few, but the northern parts of Scotland again are unlikely to be very productive.  As the 'The Wildlife Management and Muirburn (Scotland) Bill' has now been passed in Scottish Parliament, Scottish grouse moor owners and their keepers need something to keep their spirits up!

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