Rural Revolt: The Countryside Can Fight Back

Critical Countryside

A "bombshell of a poll!" blasts the reporter on the car radio. In a studio somewhere, probably London, for certain far, far away from me, there is a gleeful hint at the inevitable. And the reason, the commentator gushingly informs: "If this poll were reflected at the Election, this would mean a Labour Party majority of more than 300."  An unintended symptom of standing in an election (for the SDP, see bio), is a fascination with what the polls may mean.

I know, your heart sinks. And then again, perhaps not, of course: As a supporter of the countryside, its culture, its traditions you might be just as 'made up' by the prospect of a super-majority Labour government as my disembodied travelling companion obviously is. Though I have to admit, I would find such a position difficult to comprehend.

Yet it would appear, should you reflect such a position, that you are not alone. A poll by Farmers' Weekly magazine concluded that only 42% of farmers would now vote for the Conservative party. That's down from 70%+ support amongst farmers in 2020, and the lowest level of support from farmers on record.

Things are changing:

When it comes to politics and the countryside things are changing. Once considered the party of rural Britain and enjoying near certain support from a majority of countryside voters, the Conservatives have failed the countryside monumentally. Such failure is reflected both in polling and in the real-time 'acid tests' of parliamentary by-elections.

In the last Parliament, since the General Election in 2019 (GE2019) there have been 20 by-elections held in England. We might identify five of these as involving rural constituencies, held between December 2021 and October 2023. All had incumbent Conservative MPs; reflecting the fact that well over 90% of all countryside constituencies were won by the Conservatives at GE2019.

The Conservatives lost all five rural by-elections. The nature of these losses is significant, but rather than trotting out a string of stats let us look at the averages. On average, the swing against Conservative candidates (i.e. the % of votes moving away from support in the last election) was 27.4%; voter turnout averaged 46.3%.

It really is all about trends, and, most worryingly, trends that have turned around in double quick time. Basically, support for the Conservatives is bleeding away. The countryside has nowhere left to go; it has been cast aside politically, let down badly and, should these trends persist, then there is a reckoning coming for the countryside. With nowhere and no one to turn to our countryside faces existential threat. 

Protecting the countryside:

Only the countryside can turn this around. So just how do we go about protecting the countryside: its people, its traditions and culture in the face of near incessant and egregious political assault? We must start by building new political allegiances that stand up for the countryside and its people.

It is a matter of unfortunate fact that the actual countryside – the real countryside, our countryside – doesn't matter to the main political parties. To the Conservative Party the countryside is a version of its own 'useful idiot'. To Labour it’s an ideological 'plaything'; a totemic symbol it will attempt to cut and bury this time round once and for all.

There is little hope in acting individually, sporadically and in isolation. We need to organise, and on a scale last seen 20 years ago. Without preparedness it will be too late; the die already cast, the consequences irredeemable for the countryside: our pastimes, identity, and traditions lost in every real sense.

Stand together:

All country people need to stand together, that alone requires careful planning and direction. We must stir those who choose to do nothing. In the upcoming Election should apathy prevail, stifling any attempt to beat the storm coming for the countryside, then best let go now. For Labour has a plan for the countryside, and there's nothing about that plan that involves the likes of you and me.

The countryside has to win. The countryside must be given clear direction on how it wins. The countryside needs a brand of its own politics which frames its own policy and priorities: what the countryside is, what the countryside means and how it moves forward into a future of its own making.

The countryside needs genuine leadership and representation; the countryside needs its own champion. So, how do we do it? Who does it? What must happen?

There are those who call for protest. Taking to the streets of London as in 2002 and the great Countryside March. But to what end? We did it then, achieved the remarkable; mobilised without precedent. The build-up rattled the Blair government no question, caused the New Labour machine to stumble. But we lost. The countryside was ignored. Hunting went.

Blair had already won a second term by 2001, returning another substantial victory. Blair didn't haemorrhage rural constituencies; low voter turnout (in 2001 down to 59.4% nationally and the first GE under 70% turnout since 1918) meant New Labour retained rural seats by default. Emboldened, New Labour could claim renewed mandate over the countryside against the only metric that mattered — votes. 

Glorious battle:

The countryside won definitively its own glorious battle on September 22, 2002 by marching. But it lost the war because votes are the core currency. Crude electoral arithmetic is the only gold worth scratching for. Come the Election, the countryside must deny any claim to any other mandate but its own.

The countryside needs its own form of political representation; a representation that works for the countryside and is dedicated to it. This could come from thoroughly scrutinised candidates from within established political parties. However, more likely, true countryside candidates will be found within smaller 'challenger' parties. 

Do existing countryside organisations have a plan? I regret that I see no true indication of anything near it. Nothing new, nothing innovative – nothing productive emanates from their comfortably appointed boardrooms. 'Let the national politics play out and we’ll cut a deal' appears the likely play. By even thinking in such terms they have already failed. 

There needs now to be genuine and coordinated action from them all. There is no room for splits in anything other than supreme effort and a strong united front. Step up now and do your job — vet every candidate in every rural seat, purposefully informing and advising your membership's vote in each rural constituency. 

Challenger Parties

Has there been any contact with challenger parties supportive of the countryside likely to stand in rural seats? I guess not. And why not? The dangers to the countryside and to the interests of rural people have never been more apparent, nor the threats more imminent. So best you all get a shimmy on — the 'old way' of doing business with established political Parties is done! 

Low voter turnout in rural constituencies is bad for the countryside — indeed, that's the poison right there. At the Election all of us who care about the countryside must vote and make it count. Let the act of voting tactically be your protest and motivate everyone you associate with to do the same. Under the constraints of the UK's current First Past the Post (FPTP) electoral system accruing votes is the only priority.

FPTP rewards a majority at the ballot-box with incontestable authority. However, there are problems linked to FPTP. The most evident occurs with super-majorities: 'landslide-wins', which might easily gift something akin to actual tyranny when pitched against politically vulnerable minorities.

In 1997 New Labour secured a parliamentary majority of 179. In 2001 a majority of 167. With such landslide victories and the decree of absolute power, so the cultural tearing apart, the systemic rendering, of our countryside heritage began. 

Unstoppable forces:

In pondering all this it is easy to become despondent. But pause there, take a moment and resolve to get started saving our countryside today. Unstoppable forces igniting after the Election will presage significant electoral reform within the UK.  The countryside will benefit from that reform, but first the countryside has to be saved.

Change in the countryside already stirs. On farms, amongst rural communities across Western Europe, it begins.

It shows a way through, promising a new kind of political and social settlement for the countryside. But we need to move now.

Mike Smith is the Social Democratic party's parliamentary candidate for Arundel and South Downs